'Trump Slump' Hits Travel Industry Hard in San Diego, a City Where Tourism Reigns Supreme

Olja Ivanic was looking forward to hosting some relatives from Sweden at her place in June. She and the four visitors had planned to hike in Colorado before heading over to California for sightseeing.

However, then President Donald Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a February meeting at the White House. Ivanic’s family members promptly called off their planned trip and opted for a holiday in Europe instead.

"The treatment that Trump meted out to a democratically elected president who is at war seemed incomprehensible to them," stated Ivanic, who serves as the U.S. CEO for the Austrian health start-up Longevity Labs.

The American tourism sector anticipated 2025 to continue the positive trend seen with an increase in foreign tourists. In 2024, the count of international travelers coming to the U.S. surged, and certain predictions suggested that inbound visits might return to their pre-pandemic volumes this year.

San Diego, heavily reliant on tourism revenue—and now actively marketing itself overseas, including in places like the U.K., Germany, Australia, and Japan—had anticipated an 8.7% increase in international visitors to the U.S. for this year, as stated in a 2024 report. San Diego Tourism Marketing District .

Travel constitutes a considerable portion of the total number of visitors who head to San Diego annually. According to data from the San Diego Tourism Authority for 2023, the area attracted 31.8 million tourists, resulting in $14.3 billion spent by these travelers across various establishments such as hotels, museums, attractions, local enterprises, eateries, and others.

However, international arrivals are dropping significantly overall. This has caused anger. Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric and frightened by accounts of visitors becoming arrested at the border , some people from other nations are opting out of visiting the U.S. and deciding to go somewhere else for their travels.

The federal government’s U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures Tuesday showing visits to the U.S. from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared to the same month last year.

The statistics did not account for entries through land borders with Mexico. However, air travel originating from Mexico decreased by 23%.

During the January-March period, 7.1 million travelers came to the U.S. from abroad, which is 3.3% less compared to the first quarter of 2024.

The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics Cited by San Diego tourism officials in their 2024 report, they adjusted their annual forecast last week to anticipate a decrease of 9.4%.

Tourism Economics anticipates that some of the most significant decreases will come from Canada, where Trump’s repeated suggestion that the nation should join as the 51st state duties imposed on nearby trade allies have angered residents.

In 2024, Canada led as the top country of origin for visitors entering the U.S., with over 20.2 million travelers, based on official U.S. government statistics. Additionally, it’s among the nations where San Diego allocates funds specifically for promoting its tourist attractions.

The Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, a travel website, reported that leisure reservations for U.S. locations dropped by 40% in March when compared to the previous year. As a result of low demand, Air Canada has cut back on its flight schedules to Florida, Las Vegas, and Arizona during the spring season.

Last month, the National Travel and Tourism Office offered an optimistic projection regarding international travel to the U.S., predicting a rise of 6.5%, with anticipated arrivals reaching approximately 77.1 million in 2024. According to their analysis based on current trends, they also anticipate these numbers will exceed pre-pandemic figures by 2026.

However, according to Tourism Economics, the effect of the diminished perception of the U.S. internationally might be significant enough that the number of foreign visitors won't recover to pre-pandemic numbers before 2029.

"The survey data clearly shows a substantial combination of cancellations along with a huge decline in the desire to travel," stated Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics.

The government statistics published on Tuesday revealed that incoming travelers from China dropped almost 1%. According to Wolfgang Georg Arlt, who leads the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, leisure visits by Chinese tourists to destinations such as Disneyland, Hawaii, and New York have significantly declined and are unlikely to recover until President Trump’s term ends. He refers to this phenomenon as the "Trump Slump."

This downturn will have financial repercussions. According to Tourism Economics, expenditures by foreign travelers in the U.S. are projected to decrease by $9 billion this year.

Visit California In March, they updated their forecasts for 2025. Initially, officials anticipated that visitor spending would increase by 6.2% from 2024 levels; however, they later adjusted this figure downward to 2.3%, attributing the change to Trump’s policies.

The recently installed government has implemented considerable changes in policies even within the brief period after this prediction was completed," they noted. "These swiftly evolving circumstances add more uncertainty to the projection, particularly concerning the estimate for international visitors, due to possible financial impacts from a trade conflict and subsequent adverse public opinion.

Marco Jahn serves as both the president and CEO of New World Travel, a California-based firm that collaborates with international operators to create vacation packages and plan activities. For instance, they organize accommodations and car rentals for families interested in touring U.S. national parks via road trips.

Jahn mentioned that reservations have decreased by 20% to 50%, varying based on the origin of travelers, within the past two to three months.

He points out significant decreases from Scandinavia, where Trump’s frequent threats to take control of Greenland , a self-governing territory of NATO ally Denmark , has antagonized citizens .

"As a welcoming destination, the U.S. isn't seen as such," Jahn stated.

Beyond, a revenue management system designed for vacation rental proprietors, noted that Canadian inquiries about short-term accommodations in the U.S. dropped sharply by 44% following February 1st. This was the date President Trump initially declared a 25% tariff on products coming from Canada and Mexico.

American Ring Travel, a California-based tour operator, provides carbon-neutral bus tours across the U.S., which frequently draw environmentally aware tourists from Europe. This was stated by Richard Groesz, the company’s director of contracting. However, reservations from Germany began declining in January following Elon Musk's endorsement of a far-right political party In the nation's federal election, Groesz stated.

Several factors are affecting international travel. For many years, the United States has led as the most visited country by Japanese travelers. However, according to data from JTB Tourism Research & Consulting, South Korea surpassed the U.S. in January.

The declining value of the Japanese yen – rather than factors related to Trump – is probably the main reason reducing the appeal of traveling to the U.S., according to Takaaki Mitamura, a spokesperson for Tokyo-based travel agency Veltra Corp. Tourists are opting for locations where their money goes further, such as South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Australia, he noted.

Jennifer Vigil from Times of San Diego contributed to this report.